Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Pakistan

Authors

  • Saeed Kashif Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting and Finance, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan Author
  • Ilyas Sidra Assistant Professor, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan Author
  • Dilawar Sabira Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, The Women University Multan, Pakistan Author
  • Abbas Asad Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus Author
  • Sheikh Muhammad Ramzan Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. ramzahsheikh@bzu.edu.pk Author

Keywords:

Inflation rate, Inflation Uncertainty,Granger Causality,ARMA-ARCHand ARMA-GARCH models

Abstract

This study estimates inflation and inflation uncertainty in Pakistan. To quantify the disparity in inflation levels, the average point is defined as the point at which positive and negative disruptions have an impact. The response to them can also influence the measures of positive and negative shocks in the fluctuation of inflation. The secondary data from 1983:Q1 to 2020:Q4 is derived from the IMF-IFS data series. The ARCH families of models are employed to calculate and analyze the inflation uncertainty in Pakistan. The ARCH and GARCH models capture the symmetric response of inflationary innovations. The Friedman-Ball hypothesis posits that inflation in the present day exacerbates the uncertainty surrounding inflation in the future. This investigation investigates this hypothesis and ascertains its validity for Pakistan.

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Published

2023-12-31

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 4 (2023)

Section

Articles