Economic Development amidst Conflict: Exploring the Dynamics in Developing Nations

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.sidebar##

Published Jun 1, 2024
https://doi.org/10.61506/02.00230
Download
PDF
Statistic
Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024): Journal of Policy Research

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##

Asad Abbas
Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad Vehari Campus
Misbah Rauf
Visiting Lecturer in Economics, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan
Sana Sultan
Visiting Lecturer in Economics, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan
Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh
Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effects of ongoing conflicts on economic growth in developing countries. The study has employed Quantile Regression technique to examine the influence of conflicts on economic growth at different levels of quantiles by using panel data from 2007 to 2022. The findings of the study indicate that ongoing conflict has a negative impact on GDP growth in developing countries while gross fixed capital formation, labor force growth, and governance show the positive impact on GDP growth in all income groups but population growth and social development index shows mixed results as in some quantiles these variables impact negatively on GDP. The government and policymakers may reduce ongoing conflict by strengthening institutions, conflict prevention initiatives and promoting peace-building programs that will increase economic growth in developing countries.

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
[1]
Abbas, A. , Rauf, M., Sultan, S. and Sheikh, M.R. 2024. Economic Development amidst Conflict: Exploring the Dynamics in Developing Nations. Journal of Policy Research. 10, 2 (Jun. 2024), 241–258. DOI:https://doi.org/10.61506/02.00230.
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

References

  1. Aghion, P., Howitt, P., Brant-Collett, M., & García-Peñalosa, C. (1998). Endogenous growth theory. MIT press.
  2. Amenta, E., & Ramsey, K. M. (2010). Institutional theory. Handbook of politics: State and society in global perspective, 15-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68930-2_2
  3. Azimi, M. N. (2022). A DCCE Approach to the governance-growth nexus: global perspective. Global Business Review, 09721509221104247. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/09721509221104247
  4. Bala, U., Ibrahim, A., & Hadith, N. B. (2020). Impact of population growth, poverty and unemployment on economic growth. Asian Business Research Journal, 5, 48-54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20448/journal.518.2020.5.48.54
  5. Brück, T., & De Groot, O. J. (2013). The economic impact of violent conflict. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(6), 497-501. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723153
  6. Chauvin, N. D., & Rohner, D. (2009). The Effects of Conflict on the Structure of the Economy. ZBW.
  7. De Groot, O. J., Bozzoli, C., Alamir, A., & Brück, T. (2022). The global economic burden of violent conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 59(2), 259-276. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211046823
  8. Diakonova, M., Ghirelli, C., Molina, L., & Pérez, J. J. (2022). The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: the case of Russia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/23707
  9. Dimand, R. W., & Spencer, B. J. (2009). Trevor Swan and the neoclassical growth model. History of Political Economy, 41(Suppl_1), 107-126.
  10. Dimand, R. W., & Spencer, B. J. (2009). Trevor Swan and the neoclassical growth model. History of Political Economy, 41(Suppl_1), 107-126. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-2009-019
  11. Diop, S., Asongu, S., & S Tchamyou, V. (2022). The macroeconomic impact of recent political conflicts in Africa: Generalized synthetic counterfactual evidence. The Review of Black Political Economy. DOI, 10, 00346446221093051. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4077998
  12. Edokat, E. T., Ngongang, E., & Zeh, S. R. A. (2023). Effects of armed conflict on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Eximia, 6, 28-56.
  13. Erkisi, K., & Ceyhan, T. (2019). Trade liberalization and economic growth: A panel data analysis for transition economies in Europe. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 6(2), 82-94. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1047
  14. Gilmore, E. A., Hegre, H., Olafsdottir, G., & Petrova, K. (2021). The ‘conflict trap’reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
  15. Hollander, S. (1997). The Economics of Thomas Robert Malthus (Vol. 4). University of Toronto Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3138/9781442681156
  16. Hussain, S., Akram, M. S., Ghaffar, A., Qamar, Y., & Ahmad, W. (2019). Impact of foreign investment, labor force and interest rate on economic growth: A case of Pakistan (Under CPEC Project Contribution Countries). Asian Development Policy Review, 7(4), 369-377. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2019.74.369.377
  17. Jung, S. C. (2024). Economic slowdowns and international conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 61(2), 180-196. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221116656
  18. Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
  19. Kumar, J., & Ahmed, K. (2014). Global Meltdown with Special Reference to Euro Crises and Its Impact on Indian Economy. Sumedha Journal of Management, 3(4), 45-52.
  20. Lach, Ł. (2010). Fixed capital and long run economic growth: evidence from Poland.
  21. López, H., Wodon, Q., & Bannon, I. (2004). Rwanda: the impact of conflict on growth and poverty.
  22. Morwat, A. F. (2021). Study of Population Growth Impact on Economic Growth during (2003-2017) in Afghanistan. International Journal for Research in Applied Sciences and Biotechnology, 8(1), 49-56.
  23. Morwat, A. F. (2021). Study of Population Growth Impact on Economic Growth during (2003-2017) in Afghanistan. International Journal for Research in Applied Sciences and Biotechnology, 8(1), 49-56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31033/ijrasb.8.1.6
  24. Muckley, C. B. (2020). A countermeasure to GDP veneration: Social Progress Indicator. Available at SSRN 3541327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541327
  25. Ndoricimpa, Arcade, and Michel Armel Ndayikeza. "Economic costs of civil conflicts: The case of Burundi." Defence and Peace Economics (2023): 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2023.2232971
  26. Nganou, J. P., & Kebede, E. (2012). Sources of growth in post-conflict Burundi: From destruction to production.
  27. Nguyen, P. L. (2018). How does governance modify the relationship between public finance and economic growth: A global analysis. VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 34(5E). DOI: https://doi.org/10.25073/2588-1108/vnueab.4165
  28. Novta, N., & Pugacheva, E. (2021). The macroeconomic costs of conflict. Journal of Macroeconomics, 68, 103286. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103286
  29. Omodero, C. O., Ihendinihu, J. U., & Dandago, K. I. (2019). Federation account allocated funds and economic growth in Nigeria: A pre and post democracy dispensation assessments. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(2), 219-229. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v9n2p165
  30. Peter, A., & Bakari, I. (2018). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Africa: A dynamic panel data approach (1980-2015). Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Science (PJHSS), 6(4), 412-427. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52131/pjhss.2018.0604.0055
  31. Petrova, K., Olafsdottir, G., Hegre, H., & Gilmore, E. A. (2023). The ‘conflict trap’reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 18(2), 024028. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb163
  32. Poirier, T. (2012). The effects of armed conflict on schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Educational Development, 32(2), 341-351. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2011.06.001
  33. Rahman, M. M. (2018). Impact of labour force participation on economic growth in South Asian countries.
  34. Reder, M. W. (1967). Gary Becker's Human Capital: A Review Article. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/144593
  35. Rehman, A., Saba, I., & Kousar, R. (2019). Does Financial & Social Development are Important for Economic Growth? An International Scenario. Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies, 5(2), 315-322. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v5i2.923
  36. Rigal, S. (2022). Social-environmental index: combining social and biophysical indicators reveals limits to growth. Ecology and Society, 27(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13238-270233
  37. Roxborough, I. (1988). Modernization theory revisited. A review article. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 30(4), 753-761. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0010417500015528
  38. Sihombing, P. R., Arsani, A. M., Purwanti, D., & Budiantono, S. (2023). Implementation Of Sem-Pls Modeling On The Impact Of The Regional Competitiveness Index On Socioeconomic Macro Variables. Jurnal Lebesgue: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika, 4(1), 308-315. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46306/lb.v4i1.250
  39. Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., Sterpu, M., & Raduteanu, M. (2020). Impact of employed labor force, investment, and remittances on economic growth in EU countries. Sustainability, 12(23), 10141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310141
  40. Stupnikova, E., & Sukhadolets, T. (2019). Construction sector role in gross fixed capital formation: Empirical data from Russia. Economies, 7(2), 42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020042
  41. Sun, C. (2020). The Impact of Population Ageing and Labor Supply on Economic Growth-Analysis Based on Panel Autoregressive Model. HOLISTICA–Journal of Business and Public Administration, 11(1), 51-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/hjbpa-2020-0004
  42. Tektas, A., Helvacioglu, A. D., & Karatas, A. (2016). The potential impact of regional beyond GDP indicators on elections. Regional Science Inquiry, 8(2), 65-72.
  43. Thies, C. F., & Baum, C. F. (2020). The effect of war on economic growth. Cato J., 40, 199.
  44. Véganzonès-Varoudakis, M. A., & Rizvi, S. M. A. E. R. (2019). Conflict, growth and human development. An empirical analysis of Pakistan.
  45. Vothknecht, M., & Sumarto, S. (2011). Beyond the overall economic downturn: Evidence on sector-specific effects of violent conflict from Indonesia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1769549
  46. Wizarat, S. (2014). Natural Resources, Conflict and Growth: Uncovering the Transmission Mechanism. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 4(8), 987.
  47. Young, A. O. (2018). Impact of labour force dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical analysis using ARDL Bound testing approach. Journal of Resources Development and Management, 42(1), 31-46.
  48. Zubair, D. S. S., & Khan, M. (2014). Good governance: Pakistan's economic growth and worldwide governance indicators. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (ISSN: 1997-8553), 8(1), 258-271.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>